According to the official China sugar balance sheet in the September China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) on September 11, China has kept its 2026/27 sugar production forecast unchanged at 12.93 million tonnes.
The September forecast is unchanged from August across all major sugar balance items. Imports remain projected at 4.80 million tonnes, consumption at 15.73 million tonnes, and the annual balance change at +1.82 million tonnes.
The figures suggest that China’s domestic sugar market will remain relatively well supplied in 2026/27, although weather risks in major producing regions remain worth watching.
China Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet
| Metric | Unit | 2024/25 | 2025/26 Sept. Est. | 2026/27 Aug. Fcst. | 2026/27 Sept. Fcst. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted Area | 1,000 ha | 1,406 | 1,480 | 1,461 | 1,461 |
| └ Sugarcane | 1,000 ha | 1,189 | 1,246 | 1,248 | 1,248 |
| └ Sugar Beet | 1,000 ha | 217 | 234 | 213 | 213 |
| Harvested Area | 1,000 ha | 1,406 | 1,480 | 1,461 | 1,461 |
| └ Sugarcane | 1,000 ha | 1,186 | 1,246 | 1,248 | 1,248 |
| └ Sugar Beet | 1,000 ha | 217 | 234 | 213 | 213 |
| Average Crop Yield | tonnes/ha | 61.80 | 63.83 | 60.92 | 60.92 |
| └ Sugarcane | tonnes/ha | 61.65 | 72.30 | 66.09 | 66.09 |
| └ Sugar Beet | tonnes/ha | 61.95 | 55.35 | 55.74 | 55.74 |
| Sugar Production | million tonnes | 11.16 | 12.95 | 12.93 | 12.93 |
| └ Cane Sugar | million tonnes | 9.60 | 11.38 | 11.43 | 11.43 |
| └ Beet Sugar | million tonnes | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Imports | million tonnes | 4.62 | 5.00 | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| Consumption | million tonnes | 15.67 | 15.70 | 15.73 | 15.73 |
| Exports | million tonnes | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Balance Change | million tonnes | -0.05 | +2.07 | +1.82 | +1.82 |
| International Sugar Price | US cents/lb | 18.58 | 14.0–18.5 | 14.0–18.5 | 14.0–18.5 |
| Domestic Sugar Price | CNY/tonne | 5,993 | 5,300–5,600 | 5,500–6,000 | 5,500–6,000 |
Source: China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE), Market Early Warning Expert Committee, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, September 11, 2026. China’s sugar marketing year runs from October through September.
Production Remains Near a Multi-Year High
China’s sugar production is estimated at 12.95 million tonnes in 2025/26, sharply above 11.16 million tonnes in 2024/25.
For 2026/27, CASDE forecasts output at 12.93 million tonnes, effectively flat year on year.
Cane sugar production is expected to rise slightly to 11.43 million tonnes, while beet sugar production is forecast to decline to 1.50 million tonnes.
Sugarcane planted area is projected at 1.248 million hectares, compared with 1.246 million hectares in 2025/26. Beet area, meanwhile, is expected to fall from 234,000 hectares to 213,000 hectares.
Earlier CASDE analysis said relatively favorable returns for sugarcane growers had supported acreage expansion, while higher-yielding varieties and improved cultivation practices were helping production in major cane-growing regions.
Cane Yields Expected to Normalize
One striking change is the sugarcane yield forecast.
CASDE estimates the 2025/26 cane yield at 72.30 tonnes per hectare, compared with 66.09 tonnes per hectare for 2026/27.
Despite the lower field yield, cane sugar production is still forecast slightly higher.
This is not necessarily contradictory. Cane tonnage per hectare is only one factor determining sugar output; harvested area, sucrose content and factory recovery rates also matter.
MARA said in its September assessment that southern cane crops were in a key sugar-accumulation stage. Parts of Guangxi had been affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, while cane in Yunnan was shorter than normal following persistent rainfall, although overall crop conditions remained acceptable.
Imports Remain Important
China’s sugar imports are forecast at 4.80 million tonnes in 2026/27, down from 5.00 million tonnes in 2025/26.
Even with domestic production close to 13 million tonnes, projected output would cover only about 82% of domestic consumption:
12.93 ÷ 15.73 ≈ 82%.
That means China will continue to depend materially on overseas sugar supplies.
For global exporters, the key issue is therefore not whether China will import sugar, but how import volumes are distributed through the season as international prices, domestic prices and refining margins change.
Consumption Growth Remains Weak
CASDE forecasts Chinese sugar consumption at 15.73 million tonnes, up only 30,000 tonnes from 2025/26.
The longer-term picture is similarly subdued: consumption rises from 15.67 million tonnes in 2024/25 to 15.73 million tonnes in 2026/27.
This suggests that China’s sugar demand is entering a relatively mature phase, with production growth currently outpacing growth in domestic consumption.
Supply Surplus Narrows
The 2026/27 balance change is forecast at +1.82 million tonnes, compared with +2.07 million tonnes in 2025/26.
The calculation is:
12.93 + 4.80 − 15.73 − 0.18 = +1.82 million tonnes.
This figure should not be confused with ending stocks. It represents the annual difference between projected supply and disposition under the CASDE balance-sheet methodology.
The smaller surplus nevertheless suggests that supply pressure could ease modestly compared with 2025/26.
Domestic Prices Forecast Higher
CASDE maintains its 2026/27 domestic sugar price forecast at CNY 5,500–6,000 per tonne, above the 2025/26 estimate of CNY 5,300–5,600.
At the same time, its international sugar price forecast remains at 14.0–18.5 cents per pound.
The combination of lower projected imports, a smaller annual surplus and continued uncertainty over domestic crop conditions may help explain why the domestic price range is higher even though overall supply remains comfortable.
Outlook
The September CASDE report does not materially change China’s 2026/27 sugar outlook.
The central picture remains one of high domestic production, slow consumption growth and substantial import requirements.
For international sugar markets, the most relevant number may be the 4.80 million tonnes of projected imports. China remains structurally dependent on overseas sugar even after two strong domestic production seasons.
Weather is now the main domestic variable to watch. MARA highlighted recent adverse conditions in parts of Guangxi and Yunnan, while also noting tighter global supply expectations linked to weather and production risks in major exporters.
Sources
Primary source: Market Early Warning Expert Committee, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE No.123), September 11, 2026.
Additional background: MARA CASDE May 2026 assessment on China’s 2026/27 sugar acreage, yields, production, imports and consumption.
Disclaimer
This article is based primarily on official CASDE data published by China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. YNSUGAR.COM has converted selected units and added independent market analysis for international readers. Forecasts may change with weather, crop conditions, trade flows and policy developments. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or commercial advice.
