Official data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) shows that Brazil exported approximately 6.06 million tonnes of sugar in the first quarter of 2026 (January–March). This represents a 5.9% increase compared to the 5.72 million tonnes exported during the same period in 2025.
While the total quarterly volume remains strong, a closer look at monthly performance and regional shifts reveals a tightening supply outlook for the upcoming 2026/27 season.
Brazil Sugar Exports 2026: Q1 Performance Breakdown
The first quarter saw a divergent trend across the three months, with February acting as the primary growth driver.
Despite the volume surge in February, international price volatility took a toll. The average export price in February dropped to $367.2/tonne, a 23.1% decline from the $477.8/tonne recorded a year prior.
2025/26 Season Recap: The High-Water Mark for Sugar Mix
The 2025/26 crushing season (ending March 2026) concluded with Brazil’s Center-South region producing 40.25 million tonnes of sugar (+0.71% YoY). Crucially, the sugar-to-ethanol production mix reached a high of 50.61%, up from 48.08% in the previous cycle.
Total exports for the 2025/26 season reached approximately 33.87 million tonnes.
The Strategic Shift: Sugarcane-to-Ethanol Pivot in 2026/27
As the 2026/27 season kicks off (April 1), the market narrative is shifting from “Sugar Maximization” to “Ethanol Optimization.”
1. The Parity Premium
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher. Currently, Brazil’s ethanol parity (sugar equivalent) has reached 18 cents/lb, representing a premium of 18% to 27% over raw sugar prices.
2. Reduced Export Forecasts
In response to these price signals, Brazilian mills are strategically diverting more cane to ethanol production. Market analysts anticipate:
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Production Drop: Safras & Mercado projects a 3.91% decline in sugar production to 41.8 million tonnes for 2026/27.
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Export Contraction: Exports are expected to fall by roughly 11% to 14%, landing between 29.0 and 30.0 million tonnes.
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Mix Adjustment: The sugar-to-ethanol mix is expected to retreat from the current 50.6% down to approximately 48%.
YnSugar Analyst Outlook
While Brazil maintained year-on-year export growth in Q1 2026, the underlying indicators point toward a tighter global market. The slowdown in daily export rates in March, combined with the low international sugar price and the significant premium for ethanol, confirms that the world’s largest exporter is recalibrating.
The removal of approximately 3-4 million tonnes of sugar from the global export market in the 2026/27 season will be a critical price floor for ICE No. 11 contracts in the coming months.
