The latest China sugar production forecast released in May 2026 shows a significant upward revision…

Published by ynsugar Analysis Team

On May 12, 2026, China’s Market Early Warning Expert Committee under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) released its official May 2026 Agricultural Product Supply and Demand Analysis Report (Sugar Edition). The report delivers notable upward revisions for the current crop year and offers the first detailed projections for the 2026/27 season.

Key Highlights from the May 2026 Report

2025/26 Production Forecast Revised Upward

MARA raised its forecast for China’s 2025/26 sugar output by 300,000 tons to 12.8 million tons. The upward revision is primarily attributed to favorable weather conditions in Guangxi and other major producing regions, where sugarcane sucrose content has exceeded earlier expectations.

Table: MARA Sugar Supply & Demand Projections (May 2026)

Indicator	2025/26 (Revised)	2026/27 (Projected)	Change
Production (Million Tons)	12.80	12.93	+1.0%
Planting Area (Million Ha)	1.439	1.461	+1.5%
Sugar Imports (Million Tons)	5.00	4.80	-4.0%
Consumption (Million Tons)	15.65	15.73	+0.5%

2026/27 Outlook: Expanded Acreage and Higher Yields

Looking ahead to the 2026/27 crop year, the committee projects the following:

Sugar crop planting area: 1,461,000 hectares, up 1.5% year-on-year. The increase reflects improved comparative returns from sugarcane cultivation, which has boosted farmer enthusiasm.
Average sugar crop yield: 60.92 tons per hectare, a 0.61% increase from the previous year. Continued adoption of high-yielding cane varieties and advanced agronomic practices—such as cane-tip seedling techniques promoted across Guangxi and other core regions—is driving steady productivity gains.
Projected sugar output: 12.93 million tons, a 1.0% increase year-on-year. The relatively modest growth reflects expectations that sucrose content may decline due to climatic variability.

Global Market Dynamics to Watch

The report highlights several international factors likely to shape the coming season:

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support elevated and volatile crude oil prices.
Brazil’s new crushing season is operating with a sugar-production ratio at multi-year lows, favoring ethanol output over sugar.
El Niño-related weather patterns may further constrain global supply.

Together, these factors suggest that international sugar prices may trend upward with volatility, potentially narrowing the price gap between domestic Chinese and global markets.

Trade and Consumption Outlook for 2026/27

Sugar imports: Forecast at 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from the previous year.
Domestic consumption: Expected to remain broadly stable, edging up slightly to 15.73 million tons.

About MARA’s Monthly Reports

The ynsugar analysis team reminds readers that China’s Market Early Warning Expert Committee, operating under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, publishes monthly supply and demand analyses covering key agricultural commodities, including corn, soybeans, cotton, edible vegetable oils, and sugar. These reports are widely regarded as an authoritative reference for China’s agricultural market outlook and are closely tracked by industry participants, traders, and policy analysts worldwide.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Market Early Warning Expert Committee (May 12, 2026).
Analysis and commentary by the ynsugar research team — specialists in China’s sugar market intelligence.

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