According to the latest China Sugar Outlook for 2026/27…
China is expected to produce 12.93 million tonnes of sugar in 2026/27, broadly unchanged from the estimated 12.95 million tonnes in 2025/26, according to the latest China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on August 12.
The August forecast was unchanged from July across all major sugar balance-sheet indicators, suggesting that the official assessment of China’s supply-demand outlook has remained stable over the past month.
Imports are forecast at 4.80 million tonnes, down 200,000 tonnes year on year, while domestic consumption is expected to edge up by just 30,000 tonnes to 15.73 million tonnes.
The overall picture remains one of relatively comfortable supply. However, the annual surplus is expected to narrow, indicating that supply pressure could ease somewhat compared with 2025/26.
China Sugar Supply and Demand Balance
| Indicator | 2024/25 | 2025/26 Aug. Estimate | 2026/27 July Forecast | 2026/27 Aug. Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted area — total (1,000 ha) | 1,406 | 1,480 | 1,461 | 1,461 |
| Sugarcane | 1,189 | 1,246 | 1,248 | 1,248 |
| Sugar beet | 217 | 234 | 213 | 213 |
| Harvested area — total (1,000 ha) | 1,406 | 1,480 | 1,461 | 1,461 |
| Sugarcane | 1,186 | 1,246 | 1,248 | 1,248 |
| Sugar beet | 217 | 234 | 213 | 213 |
| Average crop yield (t/ha) | 61.80 | 63.83 | 60.92 | 60.92 |
| Sugarcane yield | 61.65 | 72.30 | 66.09 | 66.09 |
| Sugar beet yield | 61.95 | 55.35 | 55.74 | 55.74 |
| Sugar production (million tonnes) | 11.16 | 12.95 | 12.93 | 12.93 |
| Cane sugar | 9.60 | 11.38 | 11.43 | 11.43 |
| Beet sugar | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Imports (million tonnes) | 4.62 | 5.00 | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| Consumption (million tonnes) | 15.67 | 15.70 | 15.73 | 15.73 |
| Exports (million tonnes) | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Change in balance (million tonnes) | -0.05 | 2.07 | 1.82 | 1.82 |
| International sugar price (US cents/lb) | 18.58 | 14.0–18.5 | 14.0–18.5 | 14.0–18.5 |
| Domestic sugar price (yuan/tonne) | 5,993 | 5,300–5,600 | 5,500–6,000 | 5,500–6,000 |
Note: China’s sugar marketing year runs from October to September of the following year. Source: CASDE, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Domestic Production Remains Close to 13 Million Tonnes
China produced 11.16 million tonnes of sugar in 2024/25. Output is estimated to rise sharply to 12.95 million tonnes in 2025/26, an increase of around 16%, before easing only marginally to 12.93 million tonnes in 2026/27.
This suggests that domestic production could remain near the 13-million-tonne level for a second consecutive season.
The composition of production is shifting slightly. Cane sugar output is forecast to increase from 11.38 million tonnes to 11.43 million tonnes, while beet sugar production is expected to fall from 1.57 million tonnes to 1.50 million tonnes.
The decline in planted area is also concentrated in sugar beet. Total sugar-crop area is forecast to fall from 1.48 million hectares to 1.461 million hectares, while beet area drops from 234,000 hectares to 213,000 hectares, a decline of almost 9%. Sugarcane area remains broadly stable at about 1.248 million hectares.
One figure deserves particular attention. CASDE projects sugarcane yield at 66.09 tonnes per hectare in 2026/27, down from 72.30 tonnes in 2025/26, yet cane sugar production is forecast to rise slightly.
If the figures are directly comparable, this may imply assumptions for improved sucrose content, sugar recovery or industrial extraction efficiency. It is therefore an area worth monitoring as the crop develops.
Imports Fall, but 4.8 Million Tonnes Remains Significant
China’s sugar imports are forecast at 4.80 million tonnes in 2026/27, down from 5.00 million tonnes in the previous season.
A moderate decline in imports is consistent with domestic production remaining close to 13 million tonnes. However, 4.8 million tonnes is still a substantial volume and underlines China’s continued reliance on overseas sugar to supplement domestic supply and balance the market.
For international readers, it is important to distinguish the CASDE marketing-year figures from Chinese customs data, which are generally reported on a January-to-December calendar-year basis. CASDE defines the sugar marketing year as October through September.
Consumption Growth Remains Very Weak
Demand may be the more important structural signal in the latest balance sheet.
China’s sugar consumption is estimated at 15.67 million tonnes in 2024/25 and 15.70 million tonnes in 2025/26. For 2026/27, it is forecast to increase by only 30,000 tonnes to 15.73 million tonnes.
That represents annual growth of less than 0.2%.
This points to a mature domestic sugar market where conventional consumption is showing limited expansion. If demand remains broadly flat, future tightening in China’s sugar balance is more likely to come from lower domestic production, reduced imports or inventory drawdowns than from rapid consumption growth.
Annual Surplus Narrows to 1.82 Million Tonnes
The balance sheet implies:
12.93 MMT production + 4.80 MMT imports − 15.73 MMT consumption − 0.18 MMT exports = 1.82 MMT.
CASDE therefore projects a 1.82-million-tonne positive change in the annual balance for 2026/27, compared with 2.07 million tonnes in 2025/26.
Importantly, this figure should not be interpreted as ending stocks. It represents the difference between annual supply and annual consumption plus exports.
The market therefore remains well supplied, but the implied surplus falls by around 250,000 tonnes year on year. In other words, the balance is still loose, but somewhat less loose than in 2025/26.
Why Is the Domestic Price Forecast Higher?
Another notable feature of the latest outlook is the domestic price forecast.
CASDE expects Chinese sugar prices to average within a range of CNY 5,500–6,000 per tonne in 2026/27, compared with CNY 5,300–5,600 per tonne in 2025/26.
By contrast, its international sugar price forecast remains unchanged at 14.0–18.5 US cents per pound.
This suggests that the expected strengthening in China’s domestic price range is not based simply on a higher global sugar price assumption.
Several factors may be contributing: slightly lower imports, a narrower annual surplus, and continued support from cane procurement prices and domestic production costs.
📌 Deep Dive into China’s Sugar Imports
For comprehensive tracking of import tariffs, monthly customs data, and origin-wise sugar arrivals, explore our dedicated pillar resource:
China Sugar Import & Trade Report Hub.
YnSugar View
China does not appear to be heading into a sugar shortage in 2026/27.
The core fundamentals remain clear: domestic production is high, consumption growth is weak and imports remain substantial.
What is changing is the margin.
The annual surplus is forecast to decline from 2.07 million tonnes to 1.82 million tonnes, while the official domestic price range shifts higher. This suggests that the most bearish phase of the supply cycle may be gradually easing, even though the market remains adequately supplied.
For the coming season, the key variables are likely to be inventory drawdowns, the timing and volume of imports, sugarcane recovery rates and domestic production costs.
Those factors — rather than the headline production figure of 12.93 million tonnes alone — may ultimately determine whether Chinese sugar prices move towards the upper end of the official CNY 5,500–6,000 per tonne forecast range.
Disclaimer:
The information and views provided in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Data sources include the China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. While ynsugar strives to ensure accuracy, we accept no responsibility for decisions made based on the content of this report.
