EU sugar production is forecast to fall sharply in 2026/27 as the European Commission warns of shrinking beet area and weaker yields.
The European Commission’s (EC) latest forecast shows EU sugar production is set to plunge to 14.13 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season (October 2026-September 2027), down a sharp 15% from 2025/26, as shrinking planted area and falling yields deal a double blow to the region’s beet growers.
The forecast, released on June 26, marks the lowest production estimate currently circulating in the market.
Two factors driving the decline
The EC attributes the expected drop to two compounding factors: a 9% year-on-year contraction in sugar beet planting area, combined with an estimated 6.5% decline in yields. Among the major producing countries, France is expected to see the steepest yield losses, while output in Germany and Poland – the bloc’s other two leading producers – is also trending lower. Growers had already slashed planted area heading into 2026/27 after two consecutive seasons of collapsing sugar prices squeezed their margins.
Drought deepens crop risk in France
Shortly after the EC released its forecast, prolonged drought hit beet-growing regions in France – the EU’s largest sugar producer – adding further downside risk to the outlook. French weather forecasters expect no rainfall across the beet-growing plains around Paris and in northern France through July 14.
Industry sources say beet crop conditions across France are currently uneven, with some fields already showing leaf wilting, while rainfall across western Europe is expected to stay below normal over the next one to two weeks.
Market reaction: white sugar futures surge
The combination of lower production expectations and drought concerns has driven a sharp rebound in global sugar prices. London white sugar futures climbed nearly 10% over the past week, hitting their highest level in roughly 10 months, with the rally also fueled by El Niño-related crop concerns in Asia.
Prior to this rebound, ample supplies had pushed sugar prices down to their lowest level in more than five years, putting severe pressure on the profit margins of European sugar producers.
