The latest USDA FAS report indicates that Mexico Sugar Production 2026/27 is set to reach 5.45 million tonnes…
Mexico’s sugar production is forecast to grow 1% year-on-year in the 2026/27 marketing year (October–September), reaching 5.45 million tonnes, according to the latest report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The modest uptick is attributed to favorable seasonal rainfall during 2025/26 and a continued recovery in planted acreage heading into 2026/27.
On the demand side, consumption is projected to dip 1% to 5.57 million tonnes, reflecting the early impact of Mexico’s Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) introduced in 2026.
Trade flows are also shifting. Imports are expected to fall sharply by 33% to just 33,000 tonnes, squeezed by higher tariffs and the improved domestic supply outlook. Exports, meanwhile, are forecast to tick up slightly from 1.1 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 1.12 million tonnes in 2026/27.
Taken together, Mexico’s sugar sector in 2026/27 is trending toward a more balanced supply-demand picture — with modest production gains, softening consumption, tightening imports, and marginally stronger exports.
| Category | 2025/26 (Estimated) | 2026/27 (Forecast) | Change (%) |
| Production | 5.40M MT | 5.45M MT | +1% |
| Consumption | 5.63M MT | 5.57M MT | -1% |
| Imports | 49,000 MT | 33,000 MT | -33% |
| Exports | 1.10M MT | 1.12M MT | +1.8% |
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and industry analysis purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The data cited (including production, consumption, and trade forecasts) are based on the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reports as of April 2026. Commodity markets involve significant inherent risks; ynsugar.com is not responsible for any market decisions based on this content.
